While you can’t argue that Leicester City have been playing superbly this season, stats show that their 11 point lead at the top of the table is largely down to some serious luck (via the Daily Mail).
A mock up table shows how different things would be had shots that hit the woodwork gone in, and if that were the case Arsenal would be top of the league.
It’s not so much down to our bad luck though, and more the luck of the Foxes. We would have an extra point at this stage in the season, and would currently be on 59 points instead of 58. Leicester would have dropped a whole ten points though, and would join us on 59 and be below us by virtue of goal difference.
So many of Leciester’s wins have come by small margins, that if one or two of their shots miss the target then they end up dropping points. We saw on Sunday how different things could have been had one moment gone against them, and if Sadio Mane’s effort – kept out by the hand of Danny Simpson – had found the back of the net then points would have been dropped by the league leaders (assuming the rest of the game went the same, which it wouldn’t necessarily have done).
They say you make your own luck and that when you’re playing well things just keep going right for you. Things have definitely been going right for Leicester, but things could have been oh so different had a few of their shots been an inch high or wide.
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While luck obviously plays a large part in the success of any team – whether that means shots going in or balls falling fortuitously your way – you can’t rely on luck to win you titles. We should have been capitalising on the struggles of teams like Manchester City and Chelsea this season, regardless of how much luck Leicester have or haven’t had.