With just nine games left in the Premier League – 10 for a couple of teams – things are really starting to take shape and we’ve got a clear idea of who will finish where in the table. Leicester have built up a real lead atop the table, but the league is still unquestionably up for grabs. The Foxes are in unfamiliar territory with some tricky fixtures coming up, and any of Arsenal, Tottenham, or Manchester City could take top spot; mathematically even a couple of other teams could finish top.
In this article we take a look at the remaining fixtures for all the top four teams, and look at the points each team are likely to amass over the next couple of months.
Arsenal:
West Brom (H) – 3pts
Everton (A) – 1-3pts
Watford (H) – 3pts
West Ham (A) – 0-3pts
Crystal Palace (H) – 3pts
Sunderland (A) – 3pts
Norwich (H) – 3pts
Man City (A) – 0-3pts
Aston Villa (H) – 3pts
Total: 19-29pts
Final tally: 71-81pts
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Games vs top half: 2
Games vs bottom half: 7
Leicester:
Newcastle (H) – 3pts
Crystal Palace (A) – 1-3pts
Southampton (H) – 1-3pts
Sunderland (A) – 3pts
West Ham (H) – 0-3pts
Swansea (H) – 3pts
Man United (A) – 0-3pts
Everton (H) – 0-3pts
Chelsea (A) – 0-1pts
Total: 11-25pts
Final tally: 71-85pts
Games vs top half: 4
Games vs bottom half: 5
Tottenham:
Aston Villa (A) – 3pts
Bournemouth (H) – 3pts
Liverpool (A) – 0-1pts
Man United (H) – 0-3pts
Stoke (A) – 0-3pts
West Brom (H) – 3pts
Chelsea (A) – 0-1pts
Southampton (H) – 1-3pts
Newcastle (A) – 3pts
Total: 13-23pts
Final tally: 68-78pts
Games vs top half: 4
Games vs bottom half: 5
Manchester City:
Norwich (A) – 3pts
Man United (H) – 0-3pts
Bournemouth (A) – 3pts
West Brom (H) – 3pts
Chelsea (A) – 0-1pts
Stoke (H) – 1-3pts
Southampton (A) – 0-3pts
Arsenal (H) – 0-3pts
Swansea (A) – 3pts
Newcastle (A) – 3pts
Total: 16-28pts
Final tally: 66-78pts
Games vs top half: 4
Games vs bottom half: 6
On paper, we seem to have the easiest run. We’ve got more games against teams in the bottom half of the table, and look to have more winnable fixtures than our competition. The only game that you would say we look really unlikely to win is our trip to the Etihad, but Man City certainly haven’t been their usual indomitable selves this season.
Projections like these can obviously go straight out the window when form gets involved, and teams battling against relegation can sometimes end up putting far more of a fight than a mid table team who have nothing to play for. But this does give us a look at the remaining fixtures and how many points are still to play for.
If we assume that all four teams take maximum points from the numbers available in this piece – assuming Man City and Arsenal share the spoils at the Etihad – then the final table would look like this:
1. Leicester 85pts
2. Arsenal 79pts
3. Tottenham 78pts
4. Man City 76pts
This obviously shows that Leicester are still definitely in control, but they’ve got a number of games where they could easily drop points. West Ham, Everton, Manchester United, and Chelsea in particular could cause them problems, and if they drop points in any of those games we could capitalise.
If we go on one of our end-of-season-runs and take maximum points from our final games (unlikely, I know) then we’d finish the campaign on 81 points. If Leicester were then to lose a couple of games against the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United, we would clinch the title.
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It will still be a real struggle, but despite our numerous poor performances in 2016 we’re still in with a decent chance of lifting the Premier League title this season.
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