Arsenal's European exit could strengthen title challenge

Source: All data collected via rsssf.com

After last week’s devastating 5-1 loss away to Bayern Munich to other Group Stage losses at the hands of Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiacos, Arsenal are on the edge of a surprise Champions League exit. Naturally there have been dividing opinions as to whether Arsenal should keep their focus on European football or concentrate on the league entirely. There is the suggestion that Arsenal might prosper in Europa League where we would be favourites for the trophy.

A brief look at our previous European exits during Arsene Wenger’s tenure can give us the answer to all our questions.

1996-97

In case you ask yourself why did I include 1996-97 even if Arsene Wenger took over at Arsenal a week after we had been knocked out by Borussia Mönchengladbach in UEFA Cup, it’s worth noting what sort of impact the European exit had on the league performance. Before the return leg against Borussia, Arsenal had collected 14 points in seven matches (2 points per game). In the remaining 31 matches we picked up just 54 (1.74 points per game) and missed out on Champions League football due to our inferior goal-difference to Newcastle, mostly because of a narrow defeat against The Magpies at Highbury in the penultimate match of the season. It can be said that our league performance deteriorated following the European exit.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance suffered after the European exit.

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1997-98

Arsene Wenger’s first full season in charge is widely recognized as a very successful one. Wenger won the domestic double (Premier League and FA Cup) with two games to spare. However, our European spell was a disappointing one as PAOK (very important note: a Greek club) knocked us out in the first round of the UEFA Cup. Before the elimination, we had collected 19 points in nine matches (2.1 per game). After the European exit we collected 59 points in 29 matches (2.03 per game) which means we went through a slight deterioration. However, as I’ve already said, we won the league with two games to spare. Both of those games were lost which had a negative effect on our tally. So, if we take into account only games after the European exit and before we clinched 11th league title, our average was actually slightly better after PAOK (2.18 points per game).

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance had improved following the European exit until we secured the title.

1998-99

In one of the most painful seasons of all time, Arsenal didn’t make it out of the Champions League Group Stage, mostly due to poor performances at Wembley where we had played our European matches between September 1998 and November 1999.

Before our last European match, we had collected just 26 points in 16 matches (1.62 per game). After we had an honourable European exit with a victory in Athens (Greece again), we switched into a fifth gear and picked up 52 points in 22 matches (2.36 per game). Unfortunately, we lost the title on that ugly night in Leeds.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance significantly improved after the European exit.

1999-2000

It was a season destroyed by our missed penalties. We were knocked out of both domestic cups after penalties, we lost UEFA Cup Final after penalties and the main reason why we had failed to progress from Champions League Group Stage was Nwankwo Kanu’s missed spot kick against Fiorentina in Florence.

Now, it’s a tricky one to judge because, technically, we played our final European game after the league had ended. So, I will use the stats before our Champions League exit and after we had been moved to UEFA Cup.

Before our final Champions League match against AIK in Sweden we had collected 26 points in 13 games (2 per game). After that, we managed 47 points in 25 games (1.88 per game) which means playing the UEFA Cup had a negative effect on our league campaign.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance suffered due to prolonged European obligations.

2000-01

We finally had progressed beyond both Champions League group stages before Hector Cuper’s Valencia ended our European dream in the quarterfinals thanks to John Carew’s winner in the second leg.

We didn’t play too many games after the European exit. We picked up 10 points in five games (2 per game) which was some improvement on our tally before the Valencia defeat – 60 points in 33 games means we had averaged just 1.82 points per game.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance improved after the European exit.

2001-02

This time we failed to progress beyond the Champions League Second Group Stage and perhaps it was a blessing in disguise. After the loss against Juventus in our last European match we played eight games and won all of them (3 points per game), including the one at Old Trafford that clinched the second double for Arsene Wenger. Before that we had collected 63 points in 30 games (2.1 per game).

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance improved significantly after the European exit.

2002-03

We failed to progress beyond the Champions League Second Group Stage again and it was our old nemesis John Carew who put us to the sword again. From that moment on, our league campaign turned ugly as we picked up just 15 points in eight games (1.87 per game). Before that we had averaged 2.1 points per game. Our slump gave Manchester United a chance to pip us to the title.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance went significantly down after the European exit.

2003-04

The Invincibles were superior to everyone else in the Premier League. However, there were a few dark clouds in the sky after we had been knocked out by Manchester United in the FA Cup and Chelsea in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Still, The Invincibles were too good to lose the league title again – in the last eight games we picked 16 points in eight games (2 per game). Whilst it looks impressive, it should be said it was in fact a deterioration – while our forces had been stretched on the European front too, we had collected 74 points in 30 games (2.47 per game).

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance went down after the European exit but with no real consequences.

2004-05

As usual, Bayern were too much for us in the Champions League Round of 16. By the time we achieved an honourable exit with a narrow win over the Bavarian giants, we had collected just 61 points in 29 games (2.1 per game).

After the exit we averaged 2.44 points per game and pipped Manchester United for the second place.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance significantly improved after the European exit.

2005-06

Just like in 1999-2000, our last European game was played after the league had ended. Whilst our European record was almost flawless, our league campaign was pretty below par. We pipped Spuds for fourth place on the final day and our points tally from that season – 67 points or 1.76 per game – is still a record low during Wenger’s tenure.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance was poor due to prolonged European obligations.

2006-07

Some would say it was a cliche-season for us. We ended fourth in the league and were delivered a European knockout in the Round of 16. We picked just 16 points in eleven matches after the European exit (1.45 per game) which was a serious deterioration given that we had collected 52 points in 27 games before that (1.92 per game).

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance significantly deteriorated after the European exit.

2007-08

We didn’t beat Liverpool in any of our three attempts in April and that was the key reason why we didn’t win either the Premier League or the Champions League. After being knocked out by Liverpool in the Champions League Quarterfinals we collected 12 points in five games (2.4 per game). Before that we had collected 71 points in 33 games (2.15 per game). It should be noted that the only game we lost after the European exit was literally a six-pointer against the eventual champions Manchester United at Old Trafford. If we had held onto our lead in that game, we would have won the league.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance slightly improved after the European exit.

2008-09

This time we reached the Champions League semifinals where Manchester United were too strong for us. There hadn’t been many league matches left play and the fact that two out of the three were against Chelsea and Manchester United didn’t help. We picked up just four points in the last three matches (1.33 per game) compared to 1.94 per game before that.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance deteriorated following the European exit.

2009-10

The last time we had progressed beyond the Round of 16 only to be stopped by Leo Messi. Following our European defeat our league campaign went down the stairs as well – we managed to add just four points in five games (0.8 per game) to a respectable 71 points in 33 games (2.15 per game).

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance significantly deteriorated after the European exit.

2010-11

In what was one of the biggest spring meltdowns in our recent history, Arsenal picked up just eleven points following another European knockout by Barcelona (1.1 per game). Prior to that, we had averaged 2.03 points per game.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance significantly deteriorated after the European exit.

2011-12

Arsenal totaled 21 points following our heroic exit against AC Milan or 1.91 per game. Prior to that, we had collected 1.81 points per game. Given that we managed to pip Spuds for a Champions League place, that European exit was a good thing.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance improved after the European exit.

2012-13

Same can be said about the defeat to Bayern München. We picked up 26 points in the last ten league games (2.6 per game) which was a huge improvement on 1.68 points per game before the exit.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance significantly improved after the European exit.

2013-14

Another European defeat by Bayern München was followed by a strong run-in during which we averaged 2 points per game. It was a slight dip to 2.1 points per game before that.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance slightly declined following the European exit.

2014-15

After a surprising exit against AS Monaco, Arsenal picked up two points per game which was a slight improvement on 1.96 points per game before hand.

Summary: Arsenal’s league performance slightly improved following the European exit.

Final points:

1. In nine cases we improved after our European exits – I included Wenger’s first double season here due to reasons explained above,

2. In eight cases our performances in the league deteriorated,

3. In our only season when we had been knocked out from Champions League only to continue in the UEFA Cup (today’s Europa League), our performance in the league deteriorated after that switch, and

4. In our only season when we had reached the Champions League Final, we ended the league with fewest points ever during Wenger’s spell.

Conclusion: it’s indicative that Arsene Wenger has claimed both of his doubles after European exits. It takes it’s toll on the squad to be playing continually three games per week. It’s in our best interests to miss out on the Europa League unless we heavily rotate our squad and field the youngsters. However while we have arguably the strongest starting eleven in the league, defeats of our combined team against Dinamo, Olympiacos and Sheffield Wednesday suggest that our squad is not as strong as we have thought. A European exit in December would mean no more mid-week trips abroad, more time to focus on domestic rivals and more time to heal the wounds and injuries from our league matches. Also, it means that Arsene Wenger won’t have to rotate too much so our best team can play week in and out.

We are in good position to win the league after twelve matches played. If we do it… Well, there is always time to win the Champions League next season!