[Fixture Preview] 2014 is close – can we keep top spot?

It was a great weekend to be a Gooner. At the very beginning of Week 12, Everton and Liverpool drew in a six-goal-thriller. Then, it was up to us to stretch our lead ahead of Liverpool to four points by beating Southampton. We did that thanks to Olivier Giroud’s brace, a tight defence and Artur Boruc’s desire to make people forget that he had conceded a goal from the opponents’ goalkeeper a few weeks ago. The fact Chelsea won against West Ham was the only result that wasn’t in our dreams.

And, Sunday was for our special pleasure. Our noisy neighbours Spuds had had the best defensive record in the league before their visit to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. City thrashed the Spuds 6:0 and our bitterest rivals are now 8 points behind us with a negative goal-difference to show. Finally, our next opponents in the Premiership Cardiff City took one valuable point from Manchester United with a last-minute-equalizer.

That means the Premiership table – after Week 12 – looks like this:

1.Arsenal 28,

2.Liverpool 24,

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3.Chelsea 24,

4.Manchester City 22,

5.Southampton 22,

6.Manchester United 21,

7.Everton 21,

8.Newcastle 20,

9.Spuds 20…

We have seven more matches to play in the Premiership in 2013. Our advantage looks nice but we should not forget that our remaining games this year include those against four teams from the list above. But, for a start, let’s see what kind of schedule our rivals have.

LIVERPOOL

The Reds won’t have an easy ride until the end of 2013. Whilst matches against Hull (away), Norwich and West Ham (home) shouldn’t give them too much to worry about, visits to Spuds, City and Chelsea – interrupted only by the home match against Cardiff City – pose a serious test to their title-challenging credentials. Suarez, Sturridge and Coutinho should win “small” games for them but are they good enough to bring Liverpool points from White Hart Lane, Etihad and Stamford Bridge?

CHELSEA

There is no manager in the league that doesn’t envy the squad depth Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea have. Their next opponents are Southampton (home) and it might be a strong test for the Blues as the Saints have had the most solid defence in the league this term and have already caused an upset at Anfield and Old Trafford. Trips to Sunderland and Stoke will be followed by the home match against Crystal Palace. After Chelsea pay a visit to the Emirates Stadium, they’ll have two more matches on their soil – Swansea and Liverpool.

MANCHESTER CITY

Dr Jekylls at the Etihad, Mr Hydes away from home. That’s how the Citizens should be described for their performances this season. They have fired 26 goals in six home victories but have collected just four points out of a possible 18 in six away matches so far. Swansea (home) will be followed by two tough away matches – West Brom and Southampton. Then, they are going to host us and visit Fulham before two consecutive home matches against Liverpool and Crystal Palace. They’ll play their toughest games (Arsenal and Liverpool) at home but if they don’t improve their away form ASAP, they’ll have a lot of tough games to be worried about.

SOUTHAMPTON

Although it would be great if the Saints make a break-through into the Top 4 on the expense of any Manchester club, Chelsea or Spuds, it seems the Saints will stop their marching to the Champions’ League by the end of the year. It seems that this schedule – Chelsea (away), Aston Villa & Manchester City (home), Newcastle (away), Spuds (home), Cardiff & Everton (away) – doesn’t guarantee too many points for the Saints.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Conceding a late equalizer is something that many opponents have tasted against Manchester United but it might be that – unlike his ancestor – David Moyes hasn’t signed a contract with the Devil yet. Two late equalizers against Southampton and Cardiff City respectively took four points away from the reigning champions. Their next match is a fixture I like to call “Freddy vs Jason” – Manchester United play at White Hart Lane. Then, Moyes will host his former club at Old Trafford before Newcastle come to Manchester in attempt to produce another upset. In the four remaining fixtures in 2013 the Red Devils will have a rather straight-forward schedule – Aston Villa (away), West Ham (home), Hull and Norwich (away). The reigning champions might profit from the fact they have played most of their derbies this season and reduce the gap between us.

EVERTON

Last season Everton had been around the Top Four thanks to fantastic performances of their former big man Marouane Fellaini. Now they have another big man – Romelu Lukaku – that leads them into the Champions’ League zone. In their remaining fixtures a resilient Roberto Martinez’s side will play Stoke (home), Manchester United and Arsenal (away), Fulham (home), Swansea (away), Sunderland and Southampton (home). They might win all of their home matches but it remains unknown how Leighton Baines’ one-month-absence will affect their results.

NEWCASTLE

Alan Pardew’s side is one of the most unpredictable in the league. They have beaten Chelsea at home and Spuds at White Hart Lane but have also managed to lose against Sunderland away, Hull at home and to draw against West Ham at home. Given that, it’s impossible to predict the outcome of their matches against West Brom (home), Swansea and Manchester United (away), Southampton (home), Crystal Palace (away), Stoke and Arsenal (home). If Loic Remy keeps his shooting boots on and Joe Kinnear doesn’t eat Yohan Kebab, they might repeat their campaign from 2011-12 when they were just a little bit short of a Champions’ League spot.

SPUDS

Ah, poor ol’ Spuds! They have spent a little over 100 million pounds on new players this season only to score just nine goals in 12 matches with three of those coming from spot-kicks. After they had conceded six goals against City, they hope that they can do better against City’s bitter rivals United at White Hart Lane which will be a serious challenge for them given that they haven’t scored a goal at home from open play since September and haven’t beaten United at home for quite a while. After United, they’ll face Fulham and Sunderland (away), Liverpool (home), Southampton (away), West Brom and Stoke (home). Basically, there is still room for Andre Villas-Boas to keep his job but also a lot of opportunities to produce more laughs among Gooners.

Now, what this means to us?

There is some simple mathematical equation to work out how we can keep out top spot – if we win six out of the seven remaining fixtures in 2013 we’ll enter the New Year in top spot regardless of the results of our rivals.

CARDIFF CITY (AWAY)

Four out of 13 points they have won came against the Manchester clubs in Wales while the Spuds won with an injury-time back-heel goal from Paulinho. That says a lot about how difficult this match might be. Experienced strikers like Bellamy, Odemwingie and Campbell can create a lot of problems for everyone in the league so our defense will have to be at its best in order to avoid any upset over there.

Predicted outcome: a victory.

HULL CITY (HOME)

If I ever make a list of managers that I despise, Steve Bruce would enter it without a problem. The Tigers lost three very important points at home against Crystal Palace this weekend and I’d be surprised if they avoid relegation battle. We must win this one.

Predicted outcome: a victory.

EVERTON (HOME)

During our brilliant run-in last season, only two teams managed to avoid defeat against us – Manchester United and Everton. Roberto Martinez has been doing just fine at Goodison Park and Everton have been the team with the fewest losses so far – Manchester City have been the only side that won a match against Everton this season. Romelu Lukaku gives them a lot of quality up front and their strong defensive line led by Phil Jagielka has been a rather tough nut to crack this season. It might be an even tougher match than the one we played against Southampton this weekend, especially if we don’t secure our Champions’ League progress against Marseille this week. After Everton, we’ll play Napoli in the Champions’ League and then…

Predicted outcome: a victory.

MANCHESTER CITY (AWAY)

…we will go the stadium where all our opponents in the Premiership have lost so far and most of them were severely beaten. Their enormous strength in attack and midfield make Manchester City favourites against every team in the league so there is no defence in the league that can take this trip without 100 percent commitment, concentration and performance. If we stay undefeated at Etihad, we might put a serious dent into the title hopes of our most dangerous rivals. Still, they have won all of their six home games with a 26:2 goal-difference. A point would be brilliant, but maybe a bit too optimistic.

Predicted outcome: a defeat.

CHELSEA (HOME)

I think that this fixture is going to be the most important, maybe the most important in the whole campaign. If Arsene Wenger finally breaks the code for victory over Jose Mourinho, it would be a great thing for our title odds. Chelsea have been No.1 favourites for the title and their squad depth is quite insane. This one will come after our trip to Etihad and if we manage to keep our four-point-lead before the Chelsea fixture, even a draw from this game wouldn’t hurt our title dreams. Chelsea have a run-in that is relatively easy and that’s why we must not loosen our grip.

Predicted outcome: a draw.

WEST HAM (AWAY)

Another match against a manager that has earned so much hate from people who enjoy football. The Hammers’ fixture might be a tough one for us mostly because it’s squeezed between Chelsea and Newcastle. They have already caused problems for Spuds – The Hammers won 3:0 at White Hart Lane – but Chelsea gave them a real lesson this weekend. The Hammers have won just one home match this season and it came on the opening day of the season against Cardiff. If we want to win the title, we don’t have any other option apart from victory at the stadium where Manchester City and Chelsea – among others – have already won.

Predicted outcome: a victory.

NEWCASTLE (AWAY)

We secured our Champions’ League spot at Saint James’ Park last season thanks to that brilliant volley from Laurent Koscielny. We closed our 2012 against Newcastle as well – we won 7:3 at the Emirates after our opponents had managed to claw back three times. It would be a great way to conclude 2013, a calendar year during which we have collected more points than any other club in the league so far, with a victory against Newcastle but it will be some task as they have performed much better in big matches. Unpredictable as they have been so far, they might either give us a tough challenge or just lay down and let us roll them over.

Predicted outcome: a victory.

If these predictions come out right, we would have 44 points and top spot in the league by the end of the year.

What are your predictions for our remaining matches? Can we keep our top spot? Feel free to comment below!

[Fixture Preview] 2014 is close – can we keep top spot?

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